Moneyline Bets

A moneyline bet is the simplest wager in sports betting: you pick which team or player wins. There is no point spread to cover, no handicap to calculate — just which side crosses the finish line first.

Moneylines are the primary bet type used in matched betting and arbitrage because two clearly defined outcomes make hedging straightforward. One side wins; one side loses.

Moneylines use American odds. If you haven't read that guide yet, start there. The short version:

The favorite always has negative odds (you risk more to win less). The underdog always has positive odds (you risk less to win more). The gap between them — the amount by which −180/+155 doesn't perfectly sum to 100% probability — is the sportsbook's margin.

You want to hedge a $50 bonus bet on the Bills (+155) at DraftKings. You need to cover the Chiefs winning at another book, where they are priced at the same −180 shown above. The hedge that pays the same either way is $49.82— the bonus bet's winnings divided by the Chiefs' decimal price.

The same $27.68 either way, out of a bonus token that cost you nothing. Hedging against a favourite this short is not the most efficient conversion — a tighter hedge price keeps more of the bonus — but it is the clearest illustration of the mechanic.

Use the PromoEdge calculator to find the exact hedge amount that equalizes both outcomes. The moneyline format makes the inputs clean: two sides, two odds, one stake.

In most US sports (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL) a draw is not possible, so moneylines have exactly two outcomes. Straightforward to hedge.

In soccer (MLS and international leagues), matches can end in a draw. Many books offer a three-way moneyline (home / draw / away) or a two-way "no draw" line where a draw voids the bet and your stake is returned. Check which type the book is offering before placing a matched bet — hedging a three-way market is more complex and typically not worth the effort for beginners.

Stick to two-outcome US sports until you're comfortable with the mechanics.