Conversion Rate
4 min read · Free
What Conversion Rate Means
Conversion rate is the percentage of a promo's face value that you actually pocket as real cash after hedging. It answers the question: if I have a $100 bonus bet, how much of that $100 will I actually keep?
The Formula
conversion % = (net profit) ÷ (face value of promo) × 100
Example: $100 bonus bet nets you $70 → 70% conversion
Two promos with the same headline number can have very different real values. A $100 bonus bet at great odds converts at 70%. The same $100 bet at poor odds converts at 60%. Knowing conversion lets you compare apples to apples.
What Drives Conversion Up or Down
For bonus bets (the most common promo type), conversion is driven by the odds on the bonus bet side:
- Higher odds = higher conversion. A $100 bonus bet at +200 wins $200 if it hits — more profit to lock in. A $100 bonus bet at +100 only wins $100.
- Tighter hedge cost = higher conversion. If the two books disagree significantly on the same game, the hedge costs more and eats into profit.
- Bonus bet stake not returned. Because you don't get the stake back on a winning bonus bet, you always convert less than the face value. This is structural, not a mistake.
Typical Conversion Ranges by Promo Type
| Promo type | Typical conversion | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Bonus bet (free bet) | 60–70% | Higher with longer odds; stake not returned |
| No-sweat / second-chance | 60–70% | Based on refund value, which itself converts at bonus-bet rate |
| Profit boost (50%) | Varies | Can exceed 80% with tight odds gap between books |
| Deposit match (as bonus bets) | 60–70% | Apply bonus bet conversion to the matched credit |
| Site credit (stake returned) | 80–95% | Closer to cash — stake comes back if bet wins |
These are ranges, not guarantees. The actual number depends on the specific odds you find on the day. Use the calculator to see the exact conversion for any promo before placing your bets.
A Worked Conversion Example
$100 bonus bet, Team A at +150 at Book 1, hedge Team B at −160 at Book 2.
Bonus bet wins $150 if Team A wins (stake not returned)
Hedge amount: $100 × 1.50 ÷ (1 + 100/160) = ~$58 on Team B
If Team A wins: +$150 − $58 = +$92
If Team B wins: $0 + $58 × (100/160) = +$36
(The calculator finds a hedge that equalizes both outcomes — these are illustrative, not optimized.)
A well-hedged $100 bonus bet at +150/−160 might yield around $64–$70 profit → 64–70% conversion
How to Improve Conversion
- Target +120 to +200 odds for your bonus bet side. This range gives the best balance between winning probability and payout per dollar.
- Shop for a tight market. Compare the hedge odds across multiple books. The closer the two books are on the opposite side, the cheaper your hedge.
- Use the calculator. Eyeballing the hedge amount is the fastest way to leave money on the table. Exact inputs produce exact outputs.
- Move fast. Odds shift constantly. A conversion that looks like 70% at the moment you check may be 60% by the time you place the bets if you delay.