Low Holds
5 min read · Free
What a Hold Is
The hold (also called vig, juice, or overround) is the percentage of every dollar wagered that a sportsbook expects to keep as profit. It's built into every set of odds.
On a standard −110/−110 market (both sides priced at −110), the hold is approximately 4.5%:
Implied probability at −110: 110/210 = 52.38%
Both sides: 52.38% + 52.38% = 104.76%
Overround = 4.76% — the sum above 100%
Hold = 4.76% ÷ 104.76% = 4.55%
Two figures, often used interchangeably and not the same thing. The overround is how far past 100% the prices add up; the hold is that margin as a share of the money staked. Both describe the same market — the hold is always the smaller number.
A market priced at −120/+100 is not the high-hold market it looks like: the plus side gives back what the −120 takes, leaving 4.55% of overround — slightly tighter than −110/−110. On a market priced at −101/−101 (as you might see on an exchange or bettor-friendly book), the overround is 0.50%. Lopsided prices do not imply a big margin; you have to add both sides up. The no-vig calculator does that sum for any market and reports the overround directly.
What a Low Hold Is
A low-hold market is one where the combined implied probability of both outcomes is close to 100% — meaning the book has embedded minimal margin into the price. The holds on these markets are unusually tight.
| Market price | Overround | Classification |
|---|---|---|
| −120 / +100 | 4.55% | Standard — the plus side offsets the −120 |
| −110 / −110 | 4.76% | Standard |
| −105 / −105 | 2.44% | Low hold |
| −102 / −102 | 0.99% | Very low hold |
| −101 / −101 | 0.50% | Exchange-level pricing |
Low-hold markets appear when books are competing aggressively on the same game, when a sharp bettor has moved the line on both sides independently, or on exchange-style platforms where the house margin is commission-based rather than vig-embedded.
The Low-Holds Fallacy
A common misconception: "If I bet both sides of a low-hold market, I'll profit." This is incorrect.
Betting both sides of any market — regardless of hold — loses the margin. On a −105/−105 market (2.44% overround), betting $100 on each side means you stake $200 and get back $195.24 — only the winning leg pays — for a locked-in loss of $4.76. The margin is lower than at a −110/−110 book, but it is still a loss.
The key rule
Low holds do not create positive EV on their own. Betting both sides of a low-hold market without a promotion is arbitrage only if the combined implied probability is below 100% (a true arb — the arbitrage calculator shows the market total so you can tell the difference). That requires pricing disagreements between two different books, not just a single low-hold market at one book.
Where Low Holds Actually Matter
Low-hold markets are valuable not as standalone EV opportunities, but as hedge vehicleswhen converting a promotion. Here's why:
When you're converting a $100 bonus bet, the hedge side of the trade is a real-cash bet on the opposite outcome. Every dollar of vig you pay on the hedge side reduces your net profit from the bonus bet. A tighter market means a cheaper hedge.
Converting a $100 bonus bet at +100 odds — hedge cost comparison
Same bonus bet, same promo-side odds. Only the hedge pricing differs. "Cost" is measured against a hedge priced at a perfectly fair −100, which would lock exactly $50.00 — you pay the vig on one side of the hedge, not on both.
The difference isn't enormous on a single $100 bet. But across dozens of conversions over a month, the cumulative hedge-cost reduction matters — especially in the recurring-promo income phase.
How to Find Low-Hold Markets
Use exchange-style platforms
Sporttrade, Novig, ProphetX typically offer much tighter pricing than traditional books. Good for the hedge side of bonus bet conversions.
Check multiple books for the same game
During peak betting hours (within 2 hours of kickoff), sharp action often tightens lines at multiple books simultaneously — natural low-hold windows.
Use an odds aggregator
Odds comparison tools show you the best available price for each side. The book offering −103 on the hedge side is always better than one offering −115.
Avoid low-liquidity lines
A $50 bet may move the line on a low-liquidity market. Stick to NFL, NBA, and other major markets where your bet size doesn't affect pricing.